Tony Abbott Will Not Hurt Labor

Ferocity won't win anything. We now have a conciliatory government. Despite hopes by Tony Abbott to end the governing coalition, this shall not happen. Withdrawing from a legally drawn up agreement to pair speaker and deputy speaker votes shows he is an opportunist. When he thought he would gain government with support of the independents he was all for the agreement. Now he hopes to derail the Government at its first step. If one of the governing independents votes with the opposition on an issue that particular legislation will not get through. That is all it means. Julia Gillard has already given warning that some things will not pass.

A loss by one vote is the same as a loss by fifty votes. During the last government the Opposition with the help of the Greens knocked back the Emissions Trading Scheme. The Government didn't change however. Now the Greens want an EMS at the first opportunity. It's no wonder when they realized how silly it was to end the first scheme. Any scheme is better than none.

The bets are on that Tony Abbott will lose his cool during the first term of government when things do not go his way. How he has held himself together so far is a miracle. He is bound to insult the independents with a personal remark. The independents have a point to prove - this government is theirs and they know it. Tony Abbott will not gain much by insulting Labor parliamentarians. They do not have the real power. With all the compromises Labor will make this will disarm the Opposition. In reality it must attack the independents. This is the only hope of bringing the Government down. The independents will not want this to happen, at just about any cost. They have already thrown away the electorate support they had from nominal Opposition voters.

Tony Abbott will follow in Peter Costello's footsteps and be a prime ministerial contender who could not make the final step. It will be a long time before the next election. With the ongoing frustration other Opposition members could spit the dummy as well. Christopher Pyne was ranting with enjoyment when the Debate was turned down. He was notably drawn and quiet when the election result became clear. And the lady who put the knife in Malcolm Turnbull's back is still there spinning her web - nasty as ever. When Tony Abbot was first made leader and jokes were made in the House about his flirtations with Julia Gillard she did mouth something quite objectionable.

The real mystery is will mister nice guy Joe Hockey ever by prime minister. Now there is someone every mother would like as a son, and probably vote for.

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Coalition Wins

Election day is here and it looks like a change of government. If both parties get 50 per cent of the vote the Coalition will win because of the "smell" coming from the removal of Kevin Rudd. It may look like a tie, but Labor will lose two or three marginal seats by a handful of votes due to the Rudd knee-jerk action. Indeed, Julia Gillard will become the shortest reigning Prime Minister in Australia's history. This result will see her rethink her future. Personally, I can't see her staying around after the humiliation.

A loss for Labor will be a new beginning. They will have to look for new, younger leaders. When Wayne Swan takes the helm he will be the last of the old school left. Three years on the outer will see the end of him. No one else stands out with potential leadership qualities. Indeed, the Coalition is in the same boat. If Abbott goes who is to lead?

A new Coalition government has an identity problem. Will it stay on the far right after being pushed there by the "old fogies" of the team, or will it move back to the center? Tony Abbot is definitely on the right. He has the attitude of the present British Government: just balance the books; nothing needs to be done; stuff the poor. It won't be long before Abbott gets on with his pet issue - reorganizing industrial relations. Yes, the unions are in for a hard time as changes are made to workplace laws. Promises in an election are just that - promises.

P.S. Pity the NBN was scrapped. It condemns Australia to being a backwater in the world.

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Young People Are Too Busy for Religion

Tony Abbot is acting like John Howard and is indicating that social engineering is on the cards. Toward the end of John Howard's "reign" he got a little bit carried away with his power and ignored advice from fellow members of his Coalition. He did things without consulting his cabinet. Kevin Rudd got the power bug very early in his time as prime minister. Support from the people soon wanes when they feel they are not being listened to.

Tony Abbot said the young are "dismissive" of the "fundamental views of our society." He aims to remould them in the "proper" way. However, stopping homosexual behavior is really beyond his capability, as is the prevailing sentiment toward religion. Two thirds of teenagers in the UK do not believe in God. It is probably the same in Australia. Julia Gillard does not believe in God. In a survey of Americans, 53 percent said they would not vote for an atheist candidate for President. Voters in Australia now have a clear choice, an atheist versus a Roman Catholic. Maybe because she is the country's first female prime minister she will make it over the line.

It has not been made into an election issue by Tony Abbot, yet. As the election deadline approaches this could change. The debate could become very hot indeed. The Coalition leader has already alienated the younger generation with unplanned remarks, like his opinion on abortion. Some young people have said they find his walking in public in a bathing costume is offensive. It seems they hold some values that are more to the right than Tony Abbot's. They even used the strine phraseology of "budgie smugglers".

Unfortunately, people don't change. Attempts to rehabilitate prisoners have in large part failed in the past. Perhaps Tony Abbot should leave things there - in the past. For most people today practising a religion is not on. They are too busy.

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Processing Offshore Is No Answer

What is the point of processing people offshore? This won't solve the problem of refugees choosing to get in a boat and head for Australia. A delay has helped. It has put off some from applying. For them, going home seems to be the only choice.

The goal should be getting the message through to Afghans, Tamils and Africans that Australia will not take over a certain number of refugees each year. Northern European countries are doing this. They are ignoring calls from Mediterranean countries who are being flooded by new arrivals for other nations to take some. Southern countries have certainly got the message even if refugees haven't. The Australian Government should be strong enough even if it upsets the UN to make a yearly refugee limit. After all, this is what used to be done by all countries in regard to people who wanted to stay.

Something new is needed. It is ironic how similar Julia Gillard's Timor solution is to John Howard's Pacific solution. And that didn't work. The number of new arrivals actually increased with temporary visas. Many who were given money to go home returned a year later.

The election is an opportunity for a bold party to say that is enough, and to put up the barriers. When the limit is reached and announced to the world the influx will cease.

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Australians Need Space

Australians like space. The major cities are relatively sparsely populated by world standards yet we still try to shun them to avoid people. Perhaps we are spoiled for space. Australia is the most sparsely populated country after Mongolia. Yes that is a fact. We do not hold the record. Though many still claim it.

Another issue is - What is a city? For world records this can be a problem. An "average" Chinese city would have more people than the whole of Australia. Julia Gillard is aiming to keep our cities small in the near future. But is this still possible in a world seemingly full of refugees? Time will tell if East Timor even accepts the Australian offer of money for making that country the regional refugee processing center.

People don't like things to change too fast. With Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister things seemed to be moving too quickly. He had so much planned and he ignored what most people wanted. Maybe there is a lesson in that for the leader of the Opposition. Voters wanted something done about the apparent flood of refugees and what is would mean for future population density. Julia Gillard has risen to the call and adopted a policy similar to John Howard. If Timor adopts the policy it will give some breathing space to Australians who are quite shocked to find people from strange cultures walking down their street. Australia is a Caucasian land, at the moment. It has taken two centuries for Chinese to be accepted as Ocker Aussies. Australians not only need space. Time is required as well.

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Dump Green, Family First and Independent Senator

As many implied when the Greens did not support the Labor Government's Emissions Trading Scheme: They will live to regret it. This certainly seems to be the case when the new Prime Minister Julia Gillard says an ETS will have to wait until a clear majority of Australians support such a scheme. The Greens acted to block the ETS when they did not get everything they wanted. It was a silly thing to do. After all, any scheme is better than no scheme at all.

Labor bent over backwards to get the Greens to support the policy. The scheme was extremely weak compared to the original plan. But no, the Greens wanted a draconian pollution reduction program in place. Now there will not be an ETS for many years. Even if Julia Gillard calls a double dissolution and wins the next election it seems unlikely that Labor will get control of the upper house. Indeed, the troublesome Family First and Independent could lose their seats to the coalition.

Ironically, the Greens actually did Labor a favor. By killing the ETS more money was there to fatten up government coffers. This took some steam out of the opposition's ongoing complaint about the government deficit.

Australians clearly have a choice at the next election. Either give Labor control of the upper house or forget about ever having an ETS. For a start, the Family First, Independent and Greens could be dumped. This would end the problem of disruptive deadlock on issues. It is not really the opposition that causes legislation to be reviewed constantly. It is those who actually hold the balance of power - the minor parties and Independent.

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Keviin Rudd Will Lose the Next Election

Will the Labour Government mess up the new broadband investment like it has the roof insulation scheme, new housing for Aboriginals and building of new medical clinics? There was no mention of the planned new broadband network in the budget. Worse than this there was a "secret" hit in the budget on those who use liquid gas to run their cars.

The roofing scheme was a disaster. The Government ignored knowledge from New Zealand about installers being electrocuted when putting in foil insulation. Why did they do it? It seems Kevin Rudd just decides to have something done and then delegates. An efficient leader follows through and monitors what he instigates.

Aboriginal housing is another area not monitored. Only a few houses have been built despite millions already spent. And Aboriginals dearly need housing, with many sleeping under the night sky in the outback.

Medical clinics is another problem where a lot has been spent and little has been done. Only two clinics have been constructed. In rural regions people need medical services now. not in two years time.

It looks like Kevin Rudd is about to make history - a party losing office after only one term in government. He has himself to blame. In the last election he promised so much. Yet, he has not performed. The opinion polls show what people perceive is happening. The country is like a ship drifting on the high seas with the captain sleeping off a drinking session below deck. Furthermore, the new tax on mineral companies is a mistake. It will not change the way polls are going. Australians know how important the exportation of ore is to the overall economy. Rather than gaining support people are "ho humming" this tax grab. It is certainly perceived as a tax grab because people do not see mineral companies as rip off merchants. They provide works and help the balance of payments position.

Kevin Rudd can announce that he is hurt by having to postpone the Emissions Trading Scheme, but he chose to put it on ice. The Government could have tried to get it through the Senate again. It seem Kevin Rudd has shot himself in the foot by promising much and delivering little.

Julia Gillard should be preening herself and getting ready. Soon the Labor leadership and possibly control of the country's future could be in her hands. Unfortunately, she will have to spend some time in opposition first.

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